SPC MD 1627

MD 1627 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS SRN MO…SERN KS…EXTREME NERN OK…EXTREME NRN AR.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT MON AUG 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MO...SERN KS...EXTREME NERN
OK...EXTREME NRN AR.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 052213Z - 060045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR HAIL NEAR
SVR LEVELS AS THEY MOVE SEWD ACROSS OZARKS REGION...THROUGH ABOUT
03Z.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED CONFLUENCE ZONE...LOCATED ALONG
WRN RIM OF OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING AREA FROM MORNING MCS...NEAR
LINE FROM TBN TO 20 S EMP.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY EXCEPT WHERE EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED SWD BY NEWER
CONVECTION NOW GROWING ALONG IT..FROM NEAR TBN TO VERNON COUNTY MO.
WEAK MLCINH...SFC DEW POINTS MID-70S F...AND MLCAPE AROUND 3000-4000
J/KG OVER SWRN MO/SERN KS NEAR OK BORDER...ALL SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER W INTO SERN KS.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAKER W OF MO/KS LINE...MAKING
NEAR-TERM POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION MORE CONDITIONAL IN
SERN KS UNTIL OVERNIGHT CONVECTION APCHS FROM VICINITY OF WW 468.
MEANWHILE...TSTMS OVER SRN MO WILL MOVE SEWD INTO RICHLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF OPTIMAL BUOYANCY AVBL.

SRN RIM OF FAVORABLE MID-UPPER FLOW -- E.G. 30-35 KT 500-MB WNWLYS
EVIDENT IN SGF VWP -- WILL ENABLE 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS
BRIEF/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.  ACTIVITY MOVING SEWD
THROUGH ERN/SRN OZARKS REGION WILL ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY MORE STABLE
AIR MASS FROM COMBINATION OF WEAKER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND EVENTUAL
DIABATIC SFC COOLING...AS WELL AS LOWER DEEP-SHEAR VALUES.

..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 08/05/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36119161 36239399 36919624 37669649 37899538 37899330
            37809215 37369101 36779080 36149125 36119161

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1627.html