SPC MD 1631

MD 1631 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469… FOR PORTIONS SRN KS…NRN OK…SMALL PART OF SWRN MO.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 PM CDT MON AUG 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN KS...NRN OK...SMALL PART OF SWRN MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469...

VALID 060244Z - 060445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE COMPLEX
OF TSTMS ACROSS SRN KS...CENTERED AT 0230Z ON EMBEDDED CLUSTER THAT
PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT-SVR GUSTS AROUND PTT.  CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE
TO BUILD UPSCALE WITH RESULTANT MCS TRACKING TOWARD NERN OK/SERN
KS/SWRN MO REGION.  DAMAGING WIND REMAINS PRIMARY THREAT.  AREAS E
OF WW WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WW.

DISCUSSION...COLD-POOL ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE WITH
KS CONVECTION.  COMPLEX NEAR PTT YIELDED GUSTS IN 70-87 KT
RANGE...SOME MEASURED...AS INTENSE REAR-INFLOW-JET SURGE OCCURRED
AROUND SRN SEMICIRCLE OF STORM-SCALE MESOCIRCULATION.  WHILE NOT AS
STG CURRENTLY...BASE VELOCITY DATA INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL REAR-INFLOW
JET IS BEING MAINTAINED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  THIS SHOULD HELP TO
MAINTAIN COLD POOL AND CONTRIBUTE TO FORWARD PROPAGATION-RELATED
FORCED ASCENT AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMS/MERGED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.  WAA WING CONVECTIVE FORMATION ALSO WAS EVIDENT FROM
PORTIONS RENO/RICE COUNTIES EWD INTO FLINT HILLS W EMP.

SFC...925- AND 850-MB ANALYSES SHOW WELL-DEFINED MOISTURE/THETAE
GRADIENT EXTENDING ESEWD OBLIQUELY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS KS/OK BORDER
IN ASSOCIATION WITH PERSISTENT/NWD-DRIFTING SFC WARM FRONT THAT HAS
BEEN ANALYZED OVER THIS AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  FOREGOING AIR MASS
ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT...AND S OF WAA WING...SHOULD MAINTAIN
INFLOW PARCELS EFFECTIVELY SFC-BASED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH
ONLY SLOW DIABATIC SFC STABILIZATION...GIVEN COMMONALITY OF
MID-UPPER 70S SFC DEW POINTS.  2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED ALONG AND NE OF WARM FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...WITH
ONLY SLOW DECREASE THEREAFTER PRIOR TO CONVECTION. THIS AREA RESIDES
ALONG SRN FRINGE OF 30-40 KT WNWLY EFFECTIVE-SHEAR VECTORS ALIGNED
ALMOST PARALLEL TO FRONT.  WHEN CONSIDERING THIS AND
FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL DOMINANCE OF MCS MOTION...GEN EWD TO ESEWD
TRACK SHOULD BE MAINTAINED.

..EDWARDS.. 08/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37889872 38279775 38289694 38099540 38099498 37759419
            36599481 36289580 37019810 37059977 37090046 37359989
            37419902 37469841 37649849 37889872

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