SPC MD 1639

MD 1639 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SWRN AND SRN KS INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NRN OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND SRN KS INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 062014Z - 062115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
SWRN-SRN KS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NRN OK.  HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST THREATS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS IN THIS REGION.  THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH THAT WOULD WARRANT THE NEED FOR
A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...AT 20Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG-SVR TSTM LOCATED
ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER AREA /SERN CHEYENNE COUNTY CO AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF WALLACE/GREELEY COUNTIES KS/.  MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL
CU/TCU AND CB/S WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY IN
THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH CU/TCU DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO. SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWED A MORE PROMINENT BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NWRN
AR THROUGH NERN OK TO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AND THEN SWWD INTO NWRN
OK AND THE FAR NRN TX PANHANDLE.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F EITHER SIDE OF THE LATTER
SURFACE FEATURE BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN
A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY WEAKER THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER N...MAGNITUDES OF 25-35 KT
SUGGEST BOTH MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SWRN KS BETWEEN 22-00Z AS A MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TRACKS FROM NRN
NM/SRN CO INTO THE KS.

..PETERS/KERR.. 08/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   38089871 37579779 36999773 36869832 36809948 36690062
            36950138 37340196 38050216 39030211 38660000 38439952
            38089871

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