SPC MD 1643

MD 1643 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 475… FOR SWRN AND S-CNTRL KS…OK PANHANDLE…NERN TX PANHANDLE…NWRN OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S-CNTRL KS...OK PANHANDLE...NERN TX
PANHANDLE...NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 475...

VALID 062337Z - 070030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 475
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2 HRS OVER AND JUST S OF WW
475. NUMEROUS CELL INTERACTIONS/MERGERS COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
CONSOLIDATION INTO AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL LATER THIS EVENING...AND
SUBSEQUENTLY...AN INCREASING DMGG WIND THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKLY CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
EXTENDING WSW-ENE FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK.
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ROBUST WITHIN THE PAST TWO HRS INVOF THIS
BOUNDARY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME HOT/WELL MIXED OVER THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WAS NOTED FARTHER N
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND SWRN KS...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
PARAMETERS WITH NEAR 30 KT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW AND MOIST E-SELY SFC
WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY. REPORTS OF VERY LARGE HAIL HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL MOVING INTO
HASKELL AND SEWARD COUNTIES KS AS OF 2330Z.

WITH INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION NOTED MORE
RECENTLY...ADDITIONAL STORM SPLITS AND CELL MERGERS COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO A CONSOLIDATING LINE/COLD POOL INTO THE EVENING HRS. LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE /E.G. HRRR/ SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO...AND SUPPORTS A CONVECTIVE LINE PROPAGATING EWD INVOF THE
SFC BOUNDARY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE DMGG WIND THREAT WILL PROBABLY
INCREASE INTO PARTS OF NWRN OK AND S-CNTRL KS.

..ROGERS.. 08/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   35770039 35730109 35880178 36480204 37410231 37810223
            38200097 38250052 38249954 38179898 37889825 37519786
            37149764 36749763 36199897 35770039

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1643.html