SPC MD 1644

MD 1644 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR S-CNTRL AND SERN KS…FAR NRN OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 PM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN KS...FAR NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 070236Z - 070330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SWRN KS AND NWRN OK IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD. GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
UPDRAFT INTENSITY RECENTLY NOTED...A DMGG WIND THREAT MAY EXTEND E
INTO SERN KS...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS SHOW RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTER
OVER SWRN/S-CNTRL KS MOVING EWD AROUND 20 KT. MORE RECENTLY...SOME
SIGNS OF UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION HAVE BEEN NOTED...PERHAPS AIDED BY
A MODEST STRENGTHENING OF LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
QUASISTATIONARY W-E BOUNDARY. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM...WITH MUCAPE VALUES
LIKELY EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...ALONG WITH AROUND 20 KT OF MEAN TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR TSTMS PERSISTING EWD FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS...AND A POSSIBLE DMGG WIND THREAT SHOULD CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 08/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36989567 36809686 36669782 36739827 37089847 37569848
            37819823 38079770 38169729 38279634 38259596 38129554
            37879522 37399516 36989567

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