SPC MD 1649

MD 1649 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY 478… FOR NRN AND ERN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 478...

VALID 070651Z - 070745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING/DEVELOPING E/NE FROM WW 478 INTO NRN AND ERN KS AND PERHAPS
INTO PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL MO...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING ON LEADING /ERN AND
NERN/ EDGE OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH KS MCS. DEEP EML AND RICH
LOW-LVL MOISTURE SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIP-ENHANCED LOCALLY-DMGG SFC WINDS AS THE COLD POOL/GUST FRONT
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ENE INTO ENVIRONMENT OF 30 KT WNWLY DEEP SHEAR
AND STRONG MID-LVL BUOYANCY /PER 00Z WED TOP RAOB/. OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM AHEAD OF GUST FRONT AS LOW-LVL UPLIFT INCREASES ALONG AND S OF
WEAK COLD FRONT NOW EDGING SEWD ACROSS TOWARD FAR NW MO --- AND
ALONG W-E WAA ZONE INTO CNTRL MO. OVERALL SETUP MAY REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND
POSSIBLY SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/BROYLES.. 08/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37599546 38529643 39099741 39789697 40199537 40009410
            38589267 37929353 37499447 37599546

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1649.html