SPC MD 1653

MD 1653 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481… FOR CNTRL/SRN MO SEWD INTO NE AR…WRN KY…AND WRN TN


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MO SEWD INTO NE AR...WRN KY...AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481...

VALID 071136Z - 071330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG TO BRIEFLY SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PARTS OF S CNTRL AND SE MO...BUT ADDITIONAL WW NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INCREASE FARTHER SE INTO NE AR...WRN KY...AND
TN.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TO BRIEFLY SVR TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED OVER S CNTRL
AND SRN MO OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE ERN QUARTER OF WW
481...WHERE PROGRESSIVE PART OF MCS THAT MOVED EWD FROM KS
INTERSECTED WNW-ESE BAND OF WAA STORMS OVER S CNTRL MO. MERGING OF
THESE TWO AREAS OF ASCENT HAS RESULTED IN A FEW INSTANCES OF
PRECIP-ENHANCED SFC WIND GUSTS AND SHORT-LIVED BOWING STRUCTURES.

GIVEN HIGH PW /AROUND 2 INCHES/ AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF 20-25 KT
WNWLY DEEP SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLD...LOCALLY SVR
WIND GUSTS. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT EXTENDS ESE FROM THE ERN END OF WW
481 INTO WRN PARTS OF KY AND TN. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW
MAY SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN STORM STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OVER THIS
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND NEAR-SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WW IN THE NEAR-TERM.

ELSEWHERE...LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION IN TRAILING STRATIFORM PART OF
MCS SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT HAS ENDED OVER THE REMAINDER OF WATCH
481 IN ERN KS AND W CNTRL/SW MO.

..CORFIDI.. 08/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37699252 38549272 37679057 37258805 35498712 35658914
            36119080 36649225 37199265 37699252

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1653.html