MD 1657 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN MS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL AL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 310421Z - 310615Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH ERN MS AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL AL INTO THE EARLY MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND. CURRENTLY ONLY ONE SEVERE STORM EXISTS OVER EXTREME NERN MS. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS BEGIN TO INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MS NWWD THROUGH NRN AR INTO SRN KS. A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY ELEVATED STORMS PERSISTS WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN AND MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...STORMS APPEAR TO BE FORWARD PROPAGATING ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN MS AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT. MODEST INFLOW FROM THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR MIGHT SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS FARTHER WEST ALONG THE SWD MOVING BOUNDARY...BUT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RESULTING FROM NOCTURNAL COOLING MIGHT SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ..DIAL/MEAD.. 07/31/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34468872 34658758 33288638 32578839 34008946 34468872
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