SPC MD 1681

MD 1681 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NEB/NRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CDT WED AUG 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN NEB/NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020408Z - 020615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STG TSTMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN LBF AND HLC WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STG TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SVR WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA INDICATES TSTMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...MUCAPES
2500-3500 J/KG AND MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. ELY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND AN E-W ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS WILL MAXIMIZE
INFLOW OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE CLUSTER OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE
850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO VEER OVERNIGHT...MODEST WARM-AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT OVER NRN KS/SRN NEB. LATEST NAM CONVECTIVE
PRECIP FORECAST ALSO INDICATES THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 08/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39099880 39119959 39310016 39820036 40210038 40530030
            40769994 40979909 41049853 41069778 40839711 39909641
            39359629 38869707 39089878 39099880

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