SPC MD 1697

MD 1697 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL MO THROUGH SWRN IL


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CDT SAT AUG 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO THROUGH SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040808Z - 041015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL MO AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN
IL MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. AT THIS TIME OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IL THROUGH
CNTRL MO AND SERN KS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESULTING FROM STRENGTHENING
SWLY LLJ HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. RESERVOIR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS ECNTRL MO INTO SRN IL WITH 1000-1500 CAPE
FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 800 MB. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH 7
C/KM 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITH ELEVATED MULTICELL STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 08/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39459035 39078913 38478946 38519099 38609319 39279311
            39459035

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1697.html