SPC MD 1725

MD 1725 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492…493… FOR KS AND OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...KS AND OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492...493...

VALID 152346Z - 160145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
492...493...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST AS IT DROPS SWD
ALONG AND JUST E OF I-35 FROM KS INTO NRN OK THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SWWD PROPAGATION COULD OCCUR. OTHER STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL EXIST ACROSS NWRN KS...AND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ANY UPSCALE
GROWTH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A PRIMARY CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SSEWD AND WILL AFFECT THE WICHITA AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. THESE STORMS WERE RIDING SWD ALONG A LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT...BUT WITH ONLY VERY WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITH SWLY 850 MB
WINDS AROUND 10 KT. THE PROPAGATION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD POOL
SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM MOTION.

TO THE W...SCATTERED CELLS WERE MOVING SEWD OUT OF NEB AND INTO NWRN
KS. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND AN EVENTUAL MCS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH COLD POOL CAN BE GENERATED. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FOR SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PRESENT...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COOLING WITH TIME...MAKING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD
AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

..JEWELL.. 08/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   38459780 38379679 38409639 37809597 37039583 36029579
            35339616 35009652 34969735 35469863 36349965 37340059
            38270086 38940068 39400002 39019870 38459780

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1725.html