MD 1744 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR S-CNTRL IA…MUCH OF WRN MO…EXTREME ERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR S-CNTRL IA...MUCH OF WRN MO...EXTREME ERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 122039Z - 122245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z.
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SPORADIC SEVERE WIND/HAIL AS
THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS TRACK EWD AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY/MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WW PROBABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME SO TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY 00Z. 20Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CU
FIELD FROM S-CNTRL IA ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MO/ERN KS. THIS CU FIELD
WAS DEVELOPING IN WARM/MOIST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC
COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
IN ADDITION TO DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE
TOO MUCH...500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT. WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-45 KT...SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS MAY
OCCUR INITIALLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY/MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WW ISSUANCE REMAINS IN QUESTION. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE BY EARLY EVENING.
..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 08/12/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 40109502 40759495 41039478 41089435 40969382 40539342
39909315 38669310 38039341 37619378 37489447 37599511
37889543 38279543 39309511 40109502
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1744.html
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