SPC MD 1745

MD 1745 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573… FOR N CNTRL TX


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573...

VALID 122306Z - 130000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SLOWLY PROGRESS ESEWD WITH TIME. A NEW WW IS BEING
CONSIDERED ACROSS ERN OK...NERN TX...SERN KS...NWRN AR AND SWRN MO.
ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS S CNTRL OK.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SW-NE
ORIENTED COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM JUST N OF MAF
NEWD INTO SERN OK. ERN MOST STORMS APPEAR TO BETTER SUSTAINED AMIDST
A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME BENEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
VEERING WINDS WITH INCREASING HEIGHT CONFIRMED BY AREA VAD WIND
PROFILE DATA...AND GREATER MOISTURE /PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE 700 MB/
COMPARED TO AREAS WWD IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.
A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO
DIURNAL HEATING /SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 102 TO 104 F AND LOWER
60S F DEW POINTS/ WILL SUPPORT DMGG WIND POTENTIAL AS EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND PRECIPITATION LOADING ENSUE.

..HURLBUT.. 08/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33709742 34459678 34259616 33579613 32999693 32529801
            32289968 32250056 32720077 33569818 33709742

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1745.html