SPC MD 1750

MD 1750 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495… FOR W-CNTRL…N-CNTRL…AND NERN NE


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 PM CDT WED AUG 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL...N-CNTRL...AND NERN NE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495...

VALID 220216Z - 220315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ACTIVE WEST TO EAST CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN NE WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT...BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LOCALIZED OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN
IA THROUGH N-CNTRL PORTIONS OF NE AND AN INVERTED TROUGH PROTRUDING
NWD FROM THE E-CNTRL CO/WRN KS BORDER TO INVOF LBF AND INTERSECTING
THE SLOWLY SWD-MOVING AGGREGATE FRONT/OUTFLOW PUSH FROM ONGOING
STORMS OVER NRN NE.  AS OF 0215Z...THE WRN 2/3RDS OF STORMS IN THE
WEST TO EAST CORRIDOR ARE LOCATED WELL N OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT
AND WILL LIKELY DRAW INFLOW PARCELS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION LAYER
AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY COOL AND RAIN-COOLED AIR GETS
INCREASINGLY DISPLACED S FROM THE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION.  GIVEN
THE EXPECTED STABILIZATION TRENDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THINKING A
SEVERE WIND GUST/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LOCALIZED AND DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS BUT
THIS THREAT WILL LIKEWISE LESSEN WITH TIME.  FARTHER E OVER NERN
NE...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A MOISTURE RICH/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
ALLOW STORMS OVER HOLT COUNTY AND ADJACENT COUNTIES TO EXIT WW 495
AND POSE AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT FOR A FEW
HOURS.  DESPITE THE LLJ INTENSIFYING OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
/EVIDENT IN TIME-HEIGHT TRENDS AT KGLD AND KUEX VWPS/...CURRENTLY
EXPECTING THE SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN CONFINED/ISOLD OVER NERN NE
AND NOT REQUIRE A NEW WATCH FARTHER E OVER NERN NE.

..SMITH.. 08/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41989686 41529867 41470241 42110250 42590206 42549991
            43009711 42659664 41989686