SPC MD 1782

MD 1782 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WRN KS/NWRN OK AND VICINITY


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/NWRN OK AND VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 180852Z - 181045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPANDS ACROSS WRN KS AND
VICINITY AND SHIFTS SEWD TOWARD NWRN OK.  THIS THREAT MAY WARRANT WW
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WRN KS AND VICINITY -- WITHIN A ZONE OF INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION IN ROUGHLY THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER...CONFIRMING MODEL
FORECASTS OF EARLY-MORNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA.

WITH ELEVATED CAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND OBSERVED
MID-LEVEL NWLYS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE...SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION/MID-LEVEL ROTATION CAN BE EXPECTED -- WITH HAIL IN THE
1" TO 1.75" RANGE POSSIBLE WITH EVENTUAL STRONGER CELLS.  GIVEN THAT
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...AREAL EXTENT OF THE EVOLVING THREAT MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   39340109 39649939 37899820 36639802 36049965 36840078
            38830193 39340109

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1782.html