MD 1784 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NW OK AND PARTS OF ADJACENT SRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NW OK AND PARTS OF ADJACENT SRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181429Z - 181600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS NEAR
STORMS MAY NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL
SEEMS LOW ENOUGH THAT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM.
TRENDS WILL...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...THE SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AREAS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY...BUT GENERALLY REMAINS
FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT APPROACHES THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER TO THE
NORTHWEST OF ALVA OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF
SEVERAL DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...WITHIN WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLUSTERS HAS REINFORCED THE RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER NEAR/NORTHEAST OF A REMNANT STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS SEEMS TO LIMIT DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE AMBIENT LOW-
LEVEL FLOW FIELDS. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING SURFACE PRESSURE
PERTURBATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SURFACE GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...WHERE ONE SIGNIFICANT FALL/RISE COUPLET WAS EVIDENT
NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY AT 14Z. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...THE LONGEVITY OF THIS FEATURE...AND THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT
STILL SEEMS LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR/MEAD.. 08/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37019964 37159907 36909811 36389736 35939708 35409776
35299862 35619923 36499958 37019964
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1784.html
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