SPC MD 182

MD 0182 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF SRN…CENTRAL…NE KS AND EXTREME W CENTRAL MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN...CENTRAL...NE KS AND EXTREME W CENTRAL
MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 210916Z - 211515Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF KS THROUGH
12-15Z IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM
NM.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED JUST NW OF THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION NOW SPREADING NEWD OVER NRN OK/SE KS...WITH HOURLY RATES
APPROACHING TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
EXPAND/INTENSIFY ACROSS OK/SRN KS...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG
MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM ERN NM.  THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA/FRONTOGENESIS AND DIFFERENTIAL CVA WILL PROMOTE
STRONG ASCENT INTO THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS KS.  NEAR
AND NW OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THERMAL PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN NW
OF THE WARM NOSE ALOFT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION NOTED A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE SE.  GIVEN THE LARGE INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM TX AND THE STRONG ASCENT...SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE SPREADING NEWD TOWARD NE KS/NW
MO.  ALSO...WEAK MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED
CONVECTION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE LIGHTNING OVERSPREADING S CENTRAL
KS.  THE NET RESULT WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL HOURLY PRECIPITATION
RATES...WHICH COULD TRANSLATE TO SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ALONG THE NW FRINGE OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION.

..THOMPSON.. 02/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39079432 38669431 38379462 37549666 37049740 37059827
            37059974 37060068 37400092 37880089 38680058 39419977
            39579905 39659785 39599631 39379493 39079432

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0182.html