SPC MD 185

MD 0185 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL/NRN MO…AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS OF KS…NE…IA…AND IL


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN MO...AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS OF
KS...NE...IA...AND IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 211216Z - 211715Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM NE KS TO NW/N CENTRAL MO THROUGH
15-18Z.  JUST SE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND...MIXED PRECIPITATION AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVING AN
EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT HAS BEEN SPREADING STEADILY NEWD
THIS MORNING...PERHAPS A 1-2 HOURS FASTER THAN NAM/SREF AND HIGH-RES
DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR.  A WARM NOSE IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER /SAMPLED BY THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A MIX
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SE KS INTO SW MO...AND THIS MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO CENTRAL MO THIS
MORNING.  FARTHER NW...PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW /PER THE 12Z TOP
SOUNDING/.  A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
NEWD ACROSS NE KS/NW MO THROUGH MID MORNING...REACHING N CENTRAL/NE
MO BY LATE MORNING.  THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY INCLUDE THE
KANSAS CITY METRO AREA BY 13-15Z...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD
APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR.  THOUGH THE THERMAL STRATIFICATION IS
NOT NECESSARILY IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...PRECIPITATION RATES
WILL BE ENHANCED BY WEAK UPRIGHT CAPE IN THE MIDLEVELS.

..THOMPSON.. 02/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38079402 38649513 39199596 39649640 40089634 40269629
            40629569 40749489 40699264 40449173 39769098 38999079
            38299096 38069165 38079402

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0185.html