SPC MD 1881

MD 1881 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WRN/CNTRL KS…OK PANHANDLE


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1881
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS...OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 042153Z - 050000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS
AND THE OK PANHANDLE. THESE HIGH BASED TSTMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL THREAT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KS
AND THE OK PANHANDLE AMIDST A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG A DRYLINE-LIKE FEATURE EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL NEB
SWWD INTO FAR NWRN KS/NERN CO. THIS HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS REVEAL THE
STORMS ARE OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO
INITIATE ALONG THE VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE BEST SHEAR IS
LOCATED ACROSS SWRN KS /ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA/ WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS
OVER ERN KS /E OF THE 60 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM/.

AS SUCH...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NWRN KS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY
UNORGANIZED WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A MORE
TEMPERED THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN MOVE INTO THE
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE THREAT MAY TRANSITION FROM ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 09/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   37949741 37309806 36889869 36639933 36529998 36520106
            36550174 37240192 37680182 38310165 39290127 39820065
            39859958 39729824 39409758 38999739 38539729 37949741

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1881.html