SPC MD 189

MD 0189 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NERN KS…FAR SERN NEB…CNTRL/NRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...CNTRL/NRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 211719Z - 212115Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER
HOUR WILL TRANSITION NEWD ACROSS NRN MO WHILE BEGINNING TO END
ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN MO. A TRANSITION ZONE WITH A MIX OF
FZRA/PL/SN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS W-CNTRL MO AS WARM AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES MOVING NEWD INTO THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF NERN MO
WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 7 TO 11 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE KANSAS
CITY METRO. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN
KS AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TRACKING THE NRN
DEMARCATION BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY PLACES IT IN THE KANSAS CITY
METRO AROUND 1730Z. AS A RESULT...THE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS NWRN MO
IS EXPECTED TO END WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY.

FARTHER N AND E...HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS STRONG WAA
INFLUENCES THE REGION. ORIENTATION OF THE WAA APPEARS TO FAVOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL...WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...ACROSS
N-CNTRL AND NERN MO WHILE SNOWFALL RATES REMAIN LOWER ACROSS NWRN MO
AND FAR SERN NEB.

CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO MORE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS W-CNTRL MO. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL MO AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION RATES IN EXCESS
OF 0.10 INCH/HR ARE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN
AS SNOW BUT AN INCREASING FREQUENCY OF SLEET APPEARS POSSIBLE. SOME
FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
BENEATH THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL LIMIT ITS FREQUENCY.

..MOSIER.. 02/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38789368 38829456 38799501 39059626 39879674 40529598
            40569459 40499361 40249173 39539087 38539004 38259098
            38789368

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0189.html