SPC MD 1894

MD 1894 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SWRN/S CNTRL KS…WRN OK…OK/TX PANHANDLES


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL KS...WRN OK...OK/TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051949Z - 052045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH THE EVOLUTION OF EXPECTED STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON IN TX.

DISCUSSION...EVOLUTION OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MCD AREA. A COLD FRONT IS ORIENTED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO S CNTRL KS. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT HAVE
LIMITED STRONGER SURFACE HEATING. VANCE AFB VAD WIND PROFILE IN OK
IS ALSO INDICATING NLY SFC-3 KM WINDS...GIVING SOME APPROXIMATION
FOR THE LOCATION OF A THERMAL TROUGH. MEANWHILE...CU FILED IS
INCREASING ALONG A WEAK CONFLUENT AREA/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK.

WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING...STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO /ESPECIALLY ACROSS
TX/...PARTICULARLY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE ALONG ANY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LIKELY AID IN THE FORMATION OF A FEW STRONGER CLUSTERS OF
STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL SLY WINDS BEGIN
TO STRENGTHEN.

..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 09/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34950257 35440204 36860016 37039890 36659832 35579857
            34819914 33949993 34120148 34950257

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1894.html