SPC MD 1899

MD 1899 CONCERNING OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR SRN MO…FAR NRN AR


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...FAR NRN AR

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 061552Z - 061715Z

SUMMARY...SMALL TSTM CLUSTER NEAR KS/MO BORDER MAY GROW UPSCALE AS
IT PROGRESSES INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS AREA WILL
BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK AND IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SMALL TSTM CLUSTER CENTERED OVER BOURBON COUNTY KS MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS DOWNSTREAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMS THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE 90S AMIDST PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5
INCHES. THIS SHOULD YIELD MODERATELY LARGE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE
LIKELY INCREASING TO NEAR 2500 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF A
WEAK CYCLONE NEAR THE KS/OK/MO BORDER AND REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS SRN MO MAY FOSTER CONGLOMERATING UPDRAFTS
AND YIELD UPSCALE GROWTH...PER RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE. WEAK ELY
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW AMIDST MODEST MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 09/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   38109411 38379228 38409135 38259042 38119004 37468972
            36868977 36508998 36159047 36109155 36159361 36289445
            36839486 37649476 38109411

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