SPC MD 1902

MD 1902 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR S-CNTRL NEB…WRN KS…OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES…NERN NM


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB...WRN KS...OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES...NERN
NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 062010Z - 062245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM NWRN
KS TO THE RATON MESA BY 21-22Z. WITH A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
AND ON THE FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR
PROBABLE WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND. ONE OR
MORE SEVERE TSTM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...THE CU FIELD HAS INCREASED ALONG A LEE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDED FROM S-CNTRL NEB ACROSS WRN KS INTO FAR NERN NM. AS MLCIN
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...TSTM INITIATION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
THE RATON MESA AND SEPARATELY JUST S OF GLD PER VISIBLE IMAGERY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS HAD LARGELY MIXED INTO THE 50S WITHIN
THIS CORRIDOR...STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFT ACCELERATION WITH
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL REMAIN REMOVED FROM
THE STRONGEST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS FROM WY TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 09/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36310064 35380190 35080315 35570404 36220399 37310184
            38710166 40290038 41119941 41289881 41209851 40999838
            40669824 39909842 38559901 36310064

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1902.html