SPC MD 1907

MD 1907 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 627… FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB AND NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KS TO NORTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1907
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 PM CDT THU SEP 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB AND NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KS
TO NORTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 627...

VALID 070017Z - 070145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 627
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 627 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH DAMAGING
WIND/SEVERE HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITHIN A
CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB AND NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL
KS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST OK.

DISCUSSION...NEAR/EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND AT LEAST A
FEW/MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE FROM NEAR THE
NEB/NORTH-CENTRAL KS BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR DODGE CITY...AND
FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE AS OF 00Z. THE AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS WARM/MODESTLY
MOIST...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 750-1250 J/KG
BASED ON 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM DODGE CITY/TOPEKA. IN THE SHORT
TERM...AFOREMENTIONED WARM/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PRESENCE
OF 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL THROUGH
01Z-02Z. WITH TIME...A GRADUALLY DECOUPLING BOUNDARY
LAYER/INCREASING CINH SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR A WEAKENING INTENSITY TREND
BY MID-EVENING.

..GUYER.. 09/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   40429878 40499765 38459727 36159997 36450162 38670016
            40429878

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1907.html