SPC MD 1913

MD 1913 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071841Z - 072015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
ABOUT 2000Z AS THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND/HAIL INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN KS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED EWD ATOP A
WWD/NWD-GRADUALLY-SLOPING FRONT THAT INTERSECTS THE SFC FROM N-CNTRL
TO SWRN MO INTO NERN OK. AS THIS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE SFC FRONT WHERE
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED. ALSO...A BAND OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPING INVOF A FRONTAL SEGMENT IN N-CNTRL
MO MAY EVOLVE INTO DEEPER CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 20-35
KT...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES PER SPRINGFIELD VWP
DATA...SUGGEST ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
OF CONCERN...WITH SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   36689399 37339454 38849447 39409305 39689171 38779098
            37689099 36749166 36529311 36689399

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1913.html