SPC MD 1986

MD 1986 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NRN OK…S-CNTRL/SERN KS…W-CNTRL/SWRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...S-CNTRL/SERN KS...W-CNTRL/SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252147Z - 252315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM NWRN OK E-NEWD ACROSS SERN KS INTO
W-CNTRL/SWRN MO. STRONG TO SVR MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSING
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 21Z SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RESIDING INVOF THE OK PANHANDLE...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
E-NEWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO W-CNTRL MO. SURFACE HEATING S OF THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 80S AND 90S...HAS AIDED IN
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH CINH FALLING TO NEAR
ZERO. IN ADDITION...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LARGE MLCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS OF 2143Z...WITH GREATER STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY EVENING. MODEST MIDLEVEL
SWLYS OVERSPREADING LOW-LEVEL S-SWLY FLOW IS YIELDING 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SVR
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 09/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36649899 37199901 38009710 38709350 38029210 36569343
            36139782 36649899

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1986.html