SPC MD 1991

MD 1991 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SE CO…SWRN KS…WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES…FAR NE NM


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...SWRN KS...WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR NE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261850Z - 261945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING INITIATION TIME AND COVERAGE
BUT SHEAR PROFILES OVER THE AREA WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL. LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES HIGHER
WATCH ISSUANCE PROBABILITY BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IS
ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE. AN EML /SAMPLED
WELL BY THE 12Z AMA RAOB/ REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS
MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. SOME POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS POSSIBLE FROM THE NE BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER AT BEST.
EVEN WITH THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES /EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AOA 30 KTS/ ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WITH
SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL. THE OVERALL SCENARIO ELICITS LOW CONFIDENCE
OWING PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX
AND RESULTANT LIFT. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 09/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37800371 38090327 38370207 38150117 37170102 36130113
            34950113 34160107 33860161 33750236 33890287 34950307
            37000386 37800371

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1991.html