MD 1996 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653… FOR ERN OK/NERN TX PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1996
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NERN TX PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653...
VALID 270329Z - 270430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS/ WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN OK PANHANDLE AND NERN TX
PANHANDLE THROUGH 04-05Z. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NWRN OK AS STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AND
ALSO MOVE INTO THIS AREA FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER NWRN OK /E OF WW 653/ BETWEEN
04-06Z...BUT THIS SHORT DURATION PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A NEW WW.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS PROGRESSING ESEWD ACROSS THE ERN OK PANHANDLE AND NERN
TX PANHANDLE WITHIN THE NERN PART OF WW 653. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO BE ATTENDANT TO DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING EWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN
80+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET ADVANCING INTO W TX AND WRN OK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /EXCEEDING 40 KT/
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL OK IS CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNING THE DOWNSTREAM AIR
MASS...AND THUS REDUCING THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY OVER NWRN OK TO
SUSTAIN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE PANHANDLE ACTIVITY MOVES E OF
WW 653.
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE WRF-HRRR HAVE INDICATED THE ONGOING STORMS
IN THE ERN OK/NERN TX PANHANDLES WILL PROGRESS ESEWD INTO NWRN
OK...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
AND WNWWD FROM THE CENTRAL OK TSTM COMPLEX.
..PETERS.. 09/27/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...
LAT...LON 36990109 36989909 36679895 36029935 36000028 36000109
36060138 36500115 36990109
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1996.html
Be First to Comment