SPC MD 2002

MD 2002 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655… FOR SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS/FAR NORTHEAST NM/WRN OK PANHANDLE/NRN TX PANHANDLE


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS/FAR NORTHEAST NM/WRN OK
PANHANDLE/NRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655...

VALID 280218Z - 280315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 655
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TWO AREAS OF TSTMS...1/ MOVING SEWD AT 25-30 KT THROUGH
SERN CO AND 2/ MOVING MORE SLOWLY ESEWD THROUGH THE WRN OK
PANHANDLE...SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THIS EVENING.  THE FORMER ACTIVITY IN SERN CO WILL MOVE INTO
SWRN KS...WHILE THE OK PANHANDLE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SRN EXTENT
OF WW 655.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  THE COUNTIES IN THE NWRN PART OF THIS WATCH CAN BE LOCALLY
CANCELLED...PRIMARILY IN THE WAKE OF THE KIOWA/PROWERS TO BENT
COUNTIES CO STORMS.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND 9 KM CAPPI DATA
INDICATED A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES WITH THE SERN CO
ACTIVITY...EXCEPT FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING ESEWD AT 25-30 KT THROUGH
ERN KIOWA/PROWERS COUNTIES AS OF 02Z.  MEANWHILE...AT LEAST ONE OF
THE STORMS IN CIMARRON COUNTY OK REMAINED STRONG TO SEVERE.  THE
REDUCTION IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORM INTENSITIES IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKENING TREND OF INSTABILITY...THOUGH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT WILL MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A RESIDUAL AREA OF STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXTENDING FROM NM INTO THE WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLES
BENEATH A W-E ORIENTED PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS IS
SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF DCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN TIER
OF WW 655...SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THE OK PANHANDLE CLUSTER OF STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS
ESEWD.  FARTHER N INTO SERN CO...A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...DESPITE STRONG KINEMATICS...SUGGESTS THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE NRN PART OF WW 655 SHOULD CONTINUE
WITH A DIMINISHING TREND.

..PETERS.. 09/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38250108 37340105 37080102 36550085 36480057 36080061
            36050211 35670216 35620299 36170396 36880403 37290405
            37750362 38080259 38250220 38620214 38620204 38280198
            38250108

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2002.html