MD 2023 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NERN OK…FAR NWRN AR…SERN/E-CNTRL KS…CNTRL/SWRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...FAR NWRN AR...SERN/E-CNTRL
KS...CNTRL/SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 050354Z - 050630Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL EXIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...AN UPTICK IN ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN A ZONE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE
SHALLOW COLD DOME. REGIONAL RADAR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION...THUS FAR...HAS BEEN MOST ROBUST FROM CNTRL
MO INTO E-CNTRL/SERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH...RELATIVELY WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE AIDED IN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...MODEST MID-LEVEL COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH HEIGHT
FALLS/ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE FOR
PARCELS ROOTED WITHIN THE NEARLY SATURATED LAYER APPROXIMATELY
BETWEEN 850 AND 800 MB BENEATH AN EML...STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AND...WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...OCCASIONALLY PERSISTENT MULTICELL/MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ABSENCE OF GREATER
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT.
..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 38659184 37339309 35859482 35489606 35689681 36629705
38209583 39239421 39469339 39579233 39379185 38659184
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2023.html
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