SPC MD 2031

MD 2031 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NRN OK THROUGH SCNTRL AND SERN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK THROUGH SCNTRL AND SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120717Z - 120915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING FROM NRN OK INTO SCNTRL AND SERN KS. STRONGER CELLS MIGHT
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL. WW IS NOT EXPECTED UNLESS
THE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OR INTENSITY.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MO
SWWD THROUGH SERN...NWRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT EXISTS FROM SRN AR NWWD THROUGH NERN OK. RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP /7.5-8 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE MUCAPE /1500-2000 J/KG/ IN WARM SECTOR OVER OK
FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM AOB 850 MB. HOWEVER...00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED
THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS CAPPED BY AN
INVERSION AT EML BASE. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN NORTH AND EAST OF GREATER INSTABILITY
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN KS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SWD INTO NRN OK THIS MORNING
CONCURRENT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SUBTLE VORT MAX ADVANCING EWD
THROUGH NWRN OK. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT 30-40 KT SWLY
LLJ MIGHT PROMOTE ASCENT THROUGH A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO WEAKEN THE
CAP AND FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH
WHERE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANY LARGE HAIL THREAT
WOULD BE CONDITIONAL UPON BEING ABLE TO TAP INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E
AIR BENEATH THE INVERSION.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36559922 37729608 37659448 36319486 36009669 35679894
            36559922

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