SPC MD 2041

MD 2041 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO AND OK PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO AND OK
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 130311Z - 130445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM FAR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHWEST
KS/OK PANHANDLE. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL...SUCH THAT A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GRADUALLY CONGEAL IN A
QUASI-LINEAR FASHION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM AS OF 03Z.
IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE STORMS ARE LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA/UPPER JET EXIT REGION...ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT. THE
ONGOING TSTMS SEEM LIKELY TO GENERALLY OUTRUN A NARROW AXIS OF
NEAR-SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY /ALBEIT WEAK WITH INHIBITION INCREASING/
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. AS SUCH...A RELATIVELY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEMPER DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WHILE
THESE TSTMS OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO LINEARLY ORGANIZE/STEADILY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AID OF INCREASING ASCENT/STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. 50+ WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND 3-5 KM AND ABOVE PER
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP TRENDS FROM KPUX/KFDX/KDDC/KAMA. WITH
TIME...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
EVOLVING CLUSTER CURRENTLY APPROACHING SOUTHWEST KS/WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE AMID THE INCREASING WAA REGIME. RAPID
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HAIL
POTENTIAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER/HART.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35950369 36930306 38280214 38840100 38419951 36060084
            35950369

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2041.html