SPC MD 2053

MD 2053 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SERN NEB…SWRN IA…FAR NWRN MO…FAR NERN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...FAR NWRN MO...FAR NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140004Z - 140100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
TSTMS APPROACHING FROM N-CNTRL KS...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LESS
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG-SVR WINDS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WW IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ACROSS N-CNTRL KS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NEWD INTO PARTS OF SERN NEB AND NERN KS...AND MAY
EVENTUALLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN IA AND NWRN MO. THIS AREA IS
POSITIONED ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-60S ARE YIELDING
ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...18Z
NAM/22Z RUC FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW IS
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN AREAS FARTHER S...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR COULD SUPPORT DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE THREAT FOR DMGG
WIND GUSTS MAY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A
NEW WW...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 10/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41159468 40489437 40069454 39749532 39829602 40009666
            40129712 40479728 40889723 41279673 41419606 41419533
            41159468

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2053.html