MD 0211 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NERN NM…TX AND OK PANHANDLES…EXTREME SWRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...EXTREME SWRN KS
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 250120Z - 250715Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. SNOW RATES
COULD EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR WITHIN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION...INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF POWERFUL SRN ROCKIES UPPER LOW. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH RAPID MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
WITHING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER
NORTH...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING/EXPANDING NORTH OF POLAR SURGE WHERE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S JUST NORTH OF THE
WIND SHIFT.
00Z SOUNDING FROM AMA EXHIBITS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ROOTED
ABOVE 700MB. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS THIS EVOLUTION WITH
TSTMS NOW INCREASING ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AND MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEEPER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO NERN NM. GIVEN THE LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO NERN NM...VERY
HEAVY SNOW...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING...WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE CANADIAN ESCARPMENT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ICE PELLETS MAY
INITIALLY MIX ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AROUND 06Z.
..DARROW.. 02/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36160567 36420260 37410060 37019972 35150034 34610180
34810369 35260454 35350578 36160567
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0211.html
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