SPC MD 2110

MD 2110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WRN OK…ERN TX PANHANDLE


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102049Z - 102245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
OK/TX PORTION OF THE DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE SHOULD
BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR RSL
S/SWWD TO MAF. CU HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED W OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR S TSTMS WILL INITIATE BY THE END OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...AS GREATER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX OVER THE DESERT SW.
STILL...LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AMIDST WEAKENING MLCIN
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS S OF THE KS/OK BORDER.

MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE E OF THE DRYLINE CHARACTERIZED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS FROM 20-30 F WILL LIMIT MLCAPE
TO AOB 1000 J/KG. BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. A TORNADO
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE SPREADS ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
WEAKER/SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO FARTHER N...THIS
RISK SHOULD BE WEAK/BRIEF.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36869991 36909878 36049864 34419942 33660010 33490088
            33700135 34270109 36869991

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2110.html