SPC MD 2113

MD 2113 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675… FOR ERN NEB/CENTRAL KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675...

VALID 110131Z - 110230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW WITH BOTH
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS AND LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO
REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED BOWING
SEGMENTS.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL AREAS OF SVR TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS ACROSS WW
EARLY THIS EVENING. 00Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM JUST E
OF KOFK SWWD TO KHSI AND THEN INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS. A DRYLINE
EXTENDED SWD FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO
JUST E OF KDDC. THE ENVIRONMENT IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES OVER
THE WW AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY 500 TO LOCALLY 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
AND 45 TO 55 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STRONGEST OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF WW. THE TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO FORM INTO LINES/BOWING
SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT...AND SEVERAL
REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINING VALID PERIOD OF THE WW AS STRONG FORCING CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AND COLDER AIR ALOFT OFFSETS DIURNAL COOLING
MAINTAINING AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE STRONG /0-1 KM SRH 250-300 M2/S2 FROM KTOP AND KOAX 00Z
SOUNDINGS...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
PRONOUNCED BOWING SEGMENTS AND WITH ANY DISCRETE STORM THAT FORMS.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 11/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   41239819 41739781 42179710 42309674 42159630 41119580
            39989609 36989720 36999955 39209910 41239819

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2113.html