SPC MD 2115

MD 2115 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675… FOR PORTIONS OF ERN NEB AND CENTRAL/ERN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB AND CENTRAL/ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675...

VALID 110405Z - 110500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOCAL WFO EXTENSIONS OF WW 675 MAY BE NEEDED FOR 1-2 HRS
AFT 05Z BUT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND IN TSTM INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST TSTMS WITHIN THE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS
OF WW 675 WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SRN KS AT 04Z. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO SERN NEB. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT OVERALL TSTM INTENSITY WILL DECREASE AS
INCREASING CINH RESULTS FROM NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOCAL WFO EXTENSIONS
MAY BE NEEDED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL KS FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO IF ON-GOING TSTMS CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY VIA AN ESTABLISHED
COLD POOL. OVERALL HOWEVER...A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A NEW WW.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 11/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37039712 37029933 39449750 40599698 42119623 40949580
            40539587 39559624 38519635 37949712 37039712

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2115.html