MD 2116 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NERN OK/FAR ERN KS/WRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/FAR ERN KS/WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111149Z - 111315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SPORADIC STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NERN OK INTO FAR ERN KS AND INTO WRN
MO.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS/SMALL BOW ECHOES ORIENTED
PERPENDICULAR TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. THESE TSTMS ARE LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ADVANCING ESEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND
THROUGH CENTRAL TO ERN KS. ALTHOUGH TIME OF DAY AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES SUGGEST SURFACE BASED INHIBITION COULD LIMIT DOWNWARD
PENETRATION OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR...THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
SEGMENTS ARE FORMING IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED STEADY AND/OR RISEN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
RECENT STORM REPORTS FROM CNU /IN SERN KS/ WHERE ONE OF THE LINE
SEGMENTS MOVED THROUGH PRODUCING A MEASURED WIND GUST OF 57 KT AND
FAST STORM MOVEMENTS NEAR 60 KT...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. CLOUDINESS
LOCATED E OF THIS ACTIVITY SUGGESTS HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND TEND TO INHIBIT STRONGER INSTABILITY THAT
WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING.
THUS...A WW IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ANY ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES THAT WOULD RESULT IN
REEVALUATION FOR A WATCH.
..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 11/11/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35619675 37179595 39289458 39699409 39839307 39429228
37719311 36469415 35629500 35309572 35409650 35619675
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2116.html
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