MD 0217 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NWRN/FAR WRN OK…PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN KS…TX PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/FAR WRN OK...PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN KS...TX
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 250939Z - 251415Z
SUMMARY...LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 IN/HR IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN KS INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED 2-3 IN/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NWRN OK INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HRS FROM SWRN KS
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL PROMOTE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION...AT 09Z...WV IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER
ERN NM...WITH AN INTENSE 90 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING OVER WRN
TX. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTENING IS OCCURRING
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT NWRN OK/SWRN KS WITHIN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS NNEWD FROM THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO CNTRL
KS...WHICH IS FOCUSING MODERATE TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THE
SURFACE...FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY 30 E OF LUB TO NEAR AVK
IN NWRN OK. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS
NWRN AND WRN OK DURING THE MORNING...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW OVER THOSE AREAS.
COMBINATION OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEPLY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE WILL PROMOTE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST INTENSE ASCENT IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM NWRN OK TOWARD THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY UP TO 2-3 IN/HR. IN ADDITION...60
KT LOW-LEVEL NLY JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM SWRN KS INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. THIS WILL AID IN SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 35 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH...WHICH
WILL FAVOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
..GARNER.. 02/25/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34050098 33990231 34890279 36000250 37040115 37359894
36549846 34050098
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0217.html
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