SPC MD 228

MD 0228 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR S-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO NERN KS/WRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO NERN KS/WRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 260216Z - 260815Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KS NEWD ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR PRIMARILY BEGINNING IN THE 03-04Z TIMEFRAME IN NERN KS
AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPS AT 02Z CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FROM S-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO THE KC METRO AREA.
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES 1 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 1.5 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS S-CNTRL KS.  RADAR TRENDS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER NERN OK/FAR
SERN KS...MOVING WWD AND LIKELY ACTING TO AUGMENT SNOWFALL RATES.
FARTHER NE...ADDITIONAL COOLING AT THE SURFACE IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER NERN KS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN MO...AS
GREATER PRECIPITATION RATES DEVELOP AND A RAIN SHIELD MOVES NNWWD
INTO E-CNTRL KS AND W-CNTRL MO.  THIS SHOULD PROMOTE THE GRADUAL
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS NERN KS AND W-CNTRL MO WITH TIME.  MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALIGN
SW-NE...GENERALLY INVOF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NERN KS INTO NRN MO.
THIS FAVORED ZONE OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT BECOMING MAXIMIZED ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE 03-09Z PERIOD...WILL
FAVOR A PROLONGED DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES.

..SMITH.. 02/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   39009391 37079700 37029771 37179836 37659835 39589495
            39659422 39399375 39009391

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0228.html