SPC MD 230

MD 0230 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NRN/CNTRL MO…WRN IL…FAR S-CNTRL/SERN IA


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MO...WRN IL...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN IA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 260822Z - 261315Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 IN/HR WILL SPREAD NNEWD
FROM CNTRL MO INTO NRN MO...WRN IL AND FAR S-CNTRL/SERN IA THROUGH
14Z.

DISCUSSION...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LOCATED OVER AR AT 08Z WILL SHIFT
NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING NWWD FROM WRN KY/SRN IL INTO
CNTRL MO/ERN KS WILL ADVANCE NWD INTO NRN MO...WRN IL AND FAR
S-CNTRL/SERN IA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S. HOWEVER...MODERATE LOW/MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT JUXTAPOSED
WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT UPPER
JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES/FAVORABLE DYNAMIC
COOLING FOR PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...1
IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE PROBABLE...WITH LOCAL 2 IN/HR RATES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT WILL ADVANCE NWD INTO ERN MO
AND PORTIONS OF WRN IL...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY DECREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THOSE AREAS.

..GARNER.. 02/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   37969415 39619497 40789363 41179106 40558948 39408944
            38369093 37969415

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0230.html