SPC MD 253

MD 0253 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX/OK PANHANDLES…TX S PLAINS…FAR WRN OK…FAR SWRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CST FRI MAR 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...TX S PLAINS...FAR WRN OK...FAR
SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 090124Z - 090300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPREAD EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...AND COULD SUPPORT AN
UPSWING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL...BUT SOME SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM 01Z SHOW A DRYLINE ALIGNED
LONGITUDINALLY NEAR I-27 SLOWLY BEGINNING TO RETREAT WWD ACROSS THE
TX S PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN...WHERE A SLIGHT DEWPOINT
INCREASE AND BACKING OF SFC WINDS WAS NOTED AT KLBB. SHOWERS SLOWLY
INCREASING IN INTENSITY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER APPEAR TO BE
CO-LOCATED WITH THE ERN EDGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT/MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS. STRONG/SVR GUSTS HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY ACROSS THE
SWRN TX PANHANDLE PER THE TTU WEST TEXAS MESONET. WITH
TIME...INCREASING ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/E.G. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S/ E OF THE DRYLINE AND
SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASE IN TSTMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THIS
POTENTIAL MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED WITH SWD EXTENT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A STOUT MIDLEVEL CAP NEAR 500 MB PER THE 00Z MAF
SOUNDING.

THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-SFC BASED STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WANE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE...AND SHOULD RESULT IN A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN THE DMGG
WIND AND TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 03/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   35269964 34159999 33450075 32810140 32410216 32740278
            33280284 35320203 36890149 37190115 37390047 37349937
            35269964

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0253.html