SPC MD 256

MD 0256 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48… FOR TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/FAR WRN OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CST SAT MAR 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/FAR WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48...

VALID 090839Z - 090945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW 48 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 09Z. AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY AND ELEVATED NATURE OF ONGOING AND ANY NEW TSTMS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TRENDS IN IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED APPARENT ASCENT CONTINUING TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS
ERN NM INTO W/NW TX TO SW-SRN KS. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN PER 40-50 KT SSWLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM W TX TO OK
WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
FROM SRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NW OK AND ADJACENT
SRN KS.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION...AS NOTED IN RECENT KAMA WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY
WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
NUMBER OF STRONGER STORMS.  IN ADDITION...WEAK LOW LEVEL AND
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD INHIBIT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS.  THUS...WW 48 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z.

..PETERS.. 03/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33840260 35640199 36920143 37109956 37059876 35949898
            34709936 33790052 33840260

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0256.html