MD 0264 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NWRN KS…S-CNTRL NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...S-CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 100235Z - 100800Z
SUMMARY...A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT FROM NWRN KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB. RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HR
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
DISCUSSION...RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP SHOWS A BAND OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM FAR NERN CO N-NEWD INTO
N-CNTRL NEB. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DEFORMATION AND AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ALONG A
PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. LBF OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM 00Z INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL DRYNESS IS PRESENT ABOVE 600
MB...BUT A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING /NOTED ON WATER VAPOR/
CO-LOCATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD SLOWLY
SHIFT E-SEWD WITH TIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE 01Z RAP/ IS CONSISTENT IN
STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HRS...LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE ELEVATED FRONTOGENETICAL
CIRCULATION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SNOWFALL
RATES TO 2 INCHES PER HR WITHIN A SW-NE ORIENTED NARROW BAND
STRETCHING FROM NWRN KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB. ADDITIONALLY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF A SFC CYCLONE OVER KS WILL YIELD SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH...PRODUCING
LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
..ROGERS.. 03/10/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40879817 40319899 39260040 38880135 39010190 40290113
41050030 41869909 41989866 41919814 41529790 40879817
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0264.html
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