SPC MD 333

MD 0333 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292318Z - 300015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS.  A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 23Z...REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATED A CLUSTER OF
DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER WALLACE AND GREELEY COUNTIES IN KS INTO FAR
NERN PROWERS COUNTY CO.  THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING ALONG A LEE TROUGH
SITUATED NEAR THE CO-KS BORDER WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE OF
500-700 J/KG.  MOREOVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING
FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE CNTRL ROCKIES MAY BE FURTHER ENCOURAGING THESE STORMS.

THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAY PROMOTE SOME HAIL IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...AND
FAIRLY SIZABLE T-TD SPREADS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.  EXPECT THESE STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND
STABILIZE.

..MEAD/GUYER.. 03/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38830186 39230182 38930095 38500024 37740034 37420086
            37610170 38070197 38830186

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0333.html