SPC MD 339

MD 0339 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR KS…MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301846Z - 302015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS...A FEW WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS...APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS ERN KS AND WRN MO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THIS AREA SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE GETTING
UNDERWAY IN A ZONE OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION ACROSS ERN KS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING FOR STRONGER ASCENT REMAINS SUBTLE...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TRAVERSING KS ATTM MAY BE AIDING
DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION ATOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
SITUATED NEAR AND EAST OF EMP. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING ACROSS SCNTRL
AND SERN KS HAS BOOSTED WARM SECTOR MCLAPE TO AT LEAST 1000 J PER KG
AND INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED PER 12Z WRF-ARW SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR
CURRENT SFC CONDITIONS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE NEAR THE FRONT
AND SFC LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL EXIST
WITHIN AN ADEQUATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFT
PERSISTENCE/ROTATION. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM
THIS ACTIVITY AND WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 03/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37369625 38019717 38429682 38939565 39089486 39059432
            38829367 38479350 37999359 37729364 37349381 37099429
            37099545 37369625

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0339.html