SPC MD 341

MD 0341 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 66… FOR KS…MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0341
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 66...

VALID 302053Z - 302200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 66
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE/LRG HAIL REMAINS LIKELY IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KS OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SEVERE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO
EXTREME SWRN MO AFTER 4PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...SO FAR DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ISOLATED AND
ANCHORED NEAR A WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM NEAR EMP SEWD TO EXTREME
SWRN MO. VIGOROUS AND PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS ON THE FRONT WHERE MLCAPE
IS LIKELY AROUND 1000 J PER KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS ABOUT 30-35KT
HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO A COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL EVENTS PER WDSSII
MESH OUTPUT. EXPECT THE PROSPECT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE HAIL TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN PORTION OF WATCH 66 OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

IT ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIATE ALONG A
SFC TROUGH ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN KS AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD SEWD
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 03/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   39079731 38909465 36529329 36479454 36729456 36919460
            36999722 39079731

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0341.html