SPC MD 345

MD 0345 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 66… FOR OZARK PLATEAU


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...OZARK PLATEAU

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 66...

VALID 302241Z - 310015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 66
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST
WITH A SEWD-SAGGING TSTM CLUSTER ALONG THE SERN KS/SWRN MO BORDER.
PROSPECT FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W/NW WITHIN THE WW
PRIOR TO 03Z EXPIRATION APPEARS SLIM.

DISCUSSION...RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE WAKE
OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED REGENERATION ALONG
THE SRN/WRN FLANK OF THE CLUSTER WITHIN A BROADER SEWD MOVEMENT.
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE MODE AND ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE
OF EITHER HAIL/WIND SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. FARTHER TO THE
W/NW...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS WEAK WITH
PREDOMINATELY N/NWLY SURFACE WINDS EXISTING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER. RELATIVELY FLAT CU FIELD
AND LACK OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE CLUSTER IS UNLIKELY.

..GRAMS.. 03/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37799525 37719481 37619395 37299345 36899308 36479294
            36219301 36079349 36129411 36449488 37049546 37639552
            37799525

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0345.html