SPC MD 346

MD 0346 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 310037Z - 310130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF COVERAGE
INCREASES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED NORTH
OF TUL...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KTS. COVERAGE HAS BEEN
SPARSE IN NERN OK THUS FAR AS FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT IS
NEGLIGIBLE...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR TUL AND A REMNANT BOUNDARY ORIENTED
N/S ALONG A OKM-TUL-BVO LINE...AS WELL AS ALONG A WNW/ENE ORIENTED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF SERN KS.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BACKED FLOW TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES IS LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS
TO SOME EXTENT AND WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY DEEP SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIALLY
FAVORABLE STORM MODE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF COVERAGE OF
STORMS INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...WW ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED.

..DEAN/MEAD.. 03/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...

LAT...LON   35349628 35879643 36579629 36919593 36889537 36899493
            36379462 35399463 35349628

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