SPC MD 390

MD 0390 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SERN KS / W-CNTRL MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071847Z - 072045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER
SERN KS AND EVENTUALLY FARTHER E INTO W-CNTRL MO.

DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...THE LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF NWD ADVANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S-CNTRL
KS EWD INTO W-CNTRL MO.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 DEG F TO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
70S EARLY THIS AFTN.  RECENTLY...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM AN
ACCAS FIELD SPREADING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL KS.

ACCOUNTING FOR THE EXPECTED SURFACE CONDITIONS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MLCAPE GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/.  DESPITE CONTINUED
MOISTENING WITH A LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME...A NEBULOUS SIGNAL IN
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS CAST CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...BUT THIS
DATA AT LEAST SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OR EVOLVE FROM THE ONGOING STORMS NEAR ICT.  AS
SUCH...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUING TO BE MONITORED.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37219764 38029784 38629739 38769404 38199371 37649382
            37359430 37219764

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0390.html